National Public Health Assessment Model

NPHAM estimates the prevalence of chronic disease at the US Census Tract level based on American Community Survey demographic data and NED built and natural environment data. NPHAM can be used by regional and local planners to evaluate how changes in land use and transportation might affect health outcomes for a region, a target study area and/or for disadvantaged communities.  Model development was co-funded by the EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Lab and Urban Design 4 Health.  Click here to explore NPHAM for Washington DC (MWCOG) region.

Card image cap

Built and natural environment variables used as model input

US Census Block Group:  Population density, employment density, intersection density, road network density, land use mix, employment accessibility, transit accessibility, transit service frequency, park accessibility, tree canopy, land cover, bike network accessibility, bike services, bike/ped safety, violent crime

Card image cap

Demographic covariates

US Census Block Group: Population, age, income, race, family type, education, poverty level, sex, home ownership, vehicle ownership

Card image cap

Outcome estimates

US Census Block Group: Average BMI, % BMI>30, % BMI>25, coronary heart disease prevalence, hypertension prevalence, type 2 diabetes prevalence, depression prevalence, distress, % walk for transport, walk for transport duration, % bike for transport, bike for transport duration, % that use transit, % that use a personal vehicle, % that walk for leisure, leisure walk participation, annual cost of illness

A caption for the above image.
Card image cap

Modeling methodology

Health outcomes are modeled using a simulation-assisted heterogeneity-based modeling framework, known as random-parameter (RP) models.  This method is applied to large scale health survey data linked to built environment characteristics.

Card image